The modeling for the COVID-19 outcomes has shifted dramatically. Where once the mortality rate was in the millions, now it’s in the hundreds of thousands. The peak in various states has shifted weeks ahead in some areas. We are seeing, as Donald Trump said in a press conference on Monday, a light at the end of the tunnel.
Of course, that means that a lot of people are griping about the models being wrong this whole time. I wrote about that here, but here’s the key point I want people to understand:
The habits of millions of Americans have changed due to state orders, so, naturally, you have to adjust to account for this new data. When the original models predicted deaths in the millions, there was no great collective of states telling their citizens to stay at home and shutting down non-essential businesses. We were largely going about our lives, and the models were taking that into account. As more states order a shelter in place, many more millions of Americans were essentially put out of harm’s way.
This isn’t some grand conspiracy meant to keep Americans at home, but it’s a sign that keeping Americans at home is the right thing to do for the moment. How we keep Americans at home and for how long is another matter entirely — and one we must learn to balance with the overall safety of the population.
The point is this: We’re doing the right thing. And if the trends over the last four years are anything to go by, then we’re looking at the possibility of a sure recovery from this economic downturn.
That’s good news, and it’s something we should be celebrating. From a political standpoint, though, it makes this election cycle so fascinating… but that’s a conversation for a different time.
The Origin of the Virus
Jim Geraghty at National Review has been doing a series of well-researched pieces on COVID-19, but this one has been getting buzz and for good reason: It could very well point to the true origin of the outbreak.
Now, it’s likely we’ll never know the truth here, and even people on the right who have read Geraghty’s piece question if this is reckless writing or not. I tend to believe that this is a good analysis of the evidence we have available to us at this time.
I wish I could post a good excerpt here, but honestly… the whole piece is a must-read. Most of what Jim writes is very good, but this is really, really good.
Bad Journalism, Continued
I hit the media on its outright irresponsibility last week, but on Sunday night, a journalist with the Washington Post attempted a really stupid hit on Donald Trump. While I as quick to attack Trump as I am to defend him, this was just ignorance and it has to be addressed.
James Hohmann noted Trump said he’d heard of gas being 91 cents per gallon in some places, and then Hohmann pointed out the national average was around $1.97. This type of gotcha was absolutely ridiculous because local prices are not the same as the national average. This is something that almost anyone with an eighth-grade education could comprehend, and yet, for no reason than to play amateur fact-checker on Trump, Hohmann made a fool of himself here.
This is why people have such a hard time giving the media any credit. It’s why Trump’s approval rating is higher than theirs. People are tired of journalists degrading themselves by letting personal emotion make them look and act stupid on social media and on television. There is a major crisis going on, and the best some of these so-called defenders of democracy can do is provide piss-poor fact checks that an eighth-grade math student can tell you are bad analysis.
And yet, for all their talk about holding the President accountable when he lies, they will never admit they made any mistakes. They will never admit they have been wrong. They are in their own special cult and you, especially those of you who live in rural America where you likely see gas prices hovering at or below one $1.00 per gallon, don’t have the right to address their flaws. They’ll always look down on you because they are The Media. They are the reporters who give you the information they think you need to know. And, by God, if we say Trump can’t be right about gas prices being 91 cents per gallon because the national average is $1.97, then you just accept it and admit the President is wrong, or else you’re an ignorant rube.
Homestyle Podcast: Time To Fix Up The Garden
On this week’s episode of the Homestyle podcast, Leigh Guidry and I talk about getting out into the flower beds now that we’re all stuck at home. I am a masochistic… I mean… devoted tender of rose bushes and the front flower beds have been a long-time project of mine. Leigh and I also talk about getting the kids involved with the otherwise laborious chore.
You can subscribe, listen to, rate, and review the show here.
Burning Crosses… Yeah, That’s A Story This Week
Erick Erickson, a conservative commentator in Georgia who runs his own site, The Resurgent, is a friend of mine. In fact, I would probably not be doing political commentary had he not picked me up as a writer at RedState in 2013. When friends are unfairly attacked, I have to say something.
Over the weekend, Erick posted a picture of a cross in his front yard that was wrapped in Christmas lights. This is Holy Week, and Erick is deeply religious. The crosses were being sold by boys in the neighborhood who were raising money, and several people in the neighborhood were adding lights to their crosses, too.
Unfortunately, none of Erick’s neighbors are conservative commentators with a national platform and the ears of top politicians. Erick, however, is. When he posted the photo, a lot of people attacked him for being “insensitive” of our nation’s racist history, where crosses were burned by racists.
Newsweek even wrote a story about it, because the worst trend in journalism right now is finding out online trolls are mad about something and writing stories about it.
Anyway, the historical ignorance here isn’t on Erick’s part. It’s on these trolls’ and the media’s part, because the Klan didn’t burn crosses in their own yards. Erick could be the worst Klansman of all time, but having known him for as long as I have, I highly doubt that’s the case.
Erick wrote about it as his Substack here, and I highly recommend you sign up for his Substack anyway, because he frequently sends out key information on COVID-19.
Recipe Of The Week: Smoked Pork Shoulder
If you’re reading this, smoking a pork shoulder is probably not something you need a recipe for, but the rub you would use to form the crust might be something you’re interested in.
As far as smoking the pork, 7-8 hours at around 225-250 degrees is your best bet. Use a meat thermometer to monitor the temperature. It’ll be ready to pull apart at around 205 degrees internally.
As for the rub, there are a couple elements that make pork unique. Moreso than beef, pork responds very well to sweet flavors. It also takes on aromatics much more than other meats. Beef is a meat that does well on its own with a little salt and pepper, but pork transforms in new and exciting ways when you add different flavor profiles.
There are two types of rubs for meat: Wet and dry. I used a wet rub on Monday and was not disappointed. Here’s the rub I used, but there are no measurements here because it is all up to your taste. Go crazy.
Red pepper flakes
Kosher salt
Paprika
Black pepper
Garlic
Cinnamon
Honey
Apple cider vinegar
Mix it all together and rub it all over the pork shoulder. Wrap it up tight and let it sit in the fridge overnight. This rub makes an amazing bark on the pork and the smoke adds a great flavor to it.
For the record, I use cherry wood for most of my smoking purposes, but I am interested in trying to find peach wood somewhere as I’ve heard it’s sweeter and more distinct.
The Final Word: Happy Easter
Okay, so that’s technically two words. Still.
This is the most important weekend in the Christian faith, and it’s inarguably one of the most influential moments in human history, and you won’t find many historians who disagree.
Do not go to church, though. You serve your congregation best by not risking infection of everyone there. This is a tragic moment for us, because this weekend is for us to gather and celebrate the Risen Jesus. However, it is simply not a good idea, with this pandemic going on, to risk a major epidemic at your church. Most priests and pastors agree, too.
God bless you and your family during this week and during this trying times. Talk to you all next week.