I guess you could probably call this a response to a response to a response to a response. Or something like that. I lost count somewhere because I’m not really a math guy.
Let’s start at the beginning.
Jonah Goldberg, a longtime conservative intellectual, wrote a column calling for a conservative third party that would do one of two things. It would either get the more Trump-based GOP to negotiate and work with them in order to eradicate that far-right Trumpism that he doesn’t like or it would vote with Democrats and throw elections to them until the GOP learns its lesson.
I don’t like the idea from an ideological standpoint because I can’t look at what the Democrats are trying to accomplish in their major legislative initiatives and think “What’s another two to four years with them in power really going to hurt?” I also don’t like it from a strategic standpoint because third parties simply do not have and cannot get the ballot access necessary to make the plan work.
The folks at National Review had some stellar responses. You should take some time to read Jonah’s column and then read the NRO responses by Charles Cooke, Dan McLaughlin, and Michael Brendan Dougherty, who have done a stellar job responding, and it’s started a very interesting dialogue between the two sides of this argument. Goldberg, to his credit, has responded on social media, in radio interviews, and elsewhere defending his side, and there are several good responses to him that don’t devolve into personal attacks.
In a few different conversations via email, text, and social media, those I’ve talked to who are on Goldberg’s side are adamant that Trump and Trumpism are permanent. They are convinced the GOP is irrevocably broken by Trump and are fully in his pocket now. I could not disagree more, and I am thankfully not alone in that.
Over at his Substack this morning, Erick Erickson points out the same thing: It seems way more like this is a passing phase of the GOP.
It’s all gross and unseemly, but I think what is happening now is a passing fad. A large group of people came into politics inspired by Trump. They don’t really know what they’re doing in politics or how it all works. Now the billionaires who want in on the action are throwing money around and they’re getting played by the grifters and bled dry. The island of misfit toys is trying to lead them all. The professional establishment operators are experts at playing all sides and the odds are in their favor. They’re not conservatives. But they aren’t really crazy either.
[…]
So I think we’ll all be mostly fine. Politics is a cynical game with a lot of crazy right now. We are a year removed from Trump who is, for now, still on the scene, and things are still sorting out. There are a lot of people who are performing on social media and trying to find their place in this political realignment we’re all going through. I mostly feel politically homeless and wandering. I’m okay with that right now. This stuff always has a way of sorting itself out. In the meantime, when you’re homeless and wandering, you get to see the stars and other things.
This is similar to what I’ve written a few times here and elsewhere. I think that every day we’re seeing more evidence that not only is Trump and Trumpism inevitable, it’s actually already on the way out the door. It won’t be fully eradicated, nor do I think some elements of it should be. The populist connection with Americans all-to-often ignored by politicians needs to stay, but some of the conspiracy theorists maybe don’t need so much airtime, for example.
I disagree with the idea that a third party will get the Democrats or the Republicans to pay enough attention to it to matter. Nor do I think people are going to vote with a deep thought process like “I’m going to vote this way in order to make the side I really support hurt a bit and remind them of who they are supposed to be.” Their thought process is going to be, at this point, "Who is going to hurt me less?"
I could be on board with throwing elections to Democrats if I wasn't looking at what they were planning on right now. If Joe Biden had been anywhere close to the moderate he promised to be, and if the Manchins and Sinemas been the dominant force of the party, that would be one thing. Damage could be minimized. But the IRS power grab they're pushing again, among other things, is absolutely a bridge too far and I can't favor any tactics that would give the party pushing that more power.
I may not like the Trumpiest elements of the GOP and may not vote for those types of politicians, but I am damn sure not going to cast any sort of vote that makes the Democrats more powerful. The GOP can have my vote for local candidates and blank spots at the top of the ballot.
But I am also of the opinion that Trump's influence at this moment is entirely overstated and we're really an election cycle or two away from him mattering at all. For example, while it was incredibly stupid and worth noting in passing if you're someone who pays really close attention to politics, you'll notice how few people actually seemed to care about the former President’s press release on Wednesday essentially calling for Republicans to skip the 2022 and 2024 elections if the party doesn’t make focusing on the “stolen” 2020 election their main focal point. The vast majority have moved on.
So when people I genuinely like reading and talking to, who I don’t think are less conservative post-Trump than they were pre-Trump, speak and write as though Trumpism is permanent and there is no hope for the GOP, it just comes across to me as an irrational fear of Trump’s return. There are plenty of alternatives out there and plenty of them are raising a lot of money ahead of 2022 and 2024. There is hope.
There is, perhaps, a fundamental disagreement as to what conservatism is and whether or not those dynamics have shifted. A lot of the older, more intellectual conservatives are unwavering Reaganite conservatism, which isn’t a bad thing but it’s also a different movement than the conservative movement that’s taken hold today. I can’t really claim either of those movements as my own, though I am closer to Reaganite than contemporary with a healthy dose of social liberalism in by blood. But those two movements have a lot of distance between them, but also a lot of common ground, and it’s very possible for them to work together as Goldberg indicates. But that has to come from within the GOP, not from a third party that will not have the access or resources to make an impact.
It can and will come. The end isn’t nigh. We do actually have sunshine and rainbows in the future rather than the dark cloud of authoritarian Trumpism hanging over our heads.